A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."